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Carlton Blues 2018

Too Many Blues

· List Analysis

Average Age

  • 23 years 292 days (at Nov 30, 2017) – 6th youngest in the AFL

Depth Charts:

  • 4 x Key forwards (193cm+)
  • 7 x General forwards
  • 14 x Midfielders
  • 4 x Rucks
  • 8 x General defenders
  • 8 x Key defenders (193cm+)

Key Players:

  • Patrick Cripps (VC)
  • Marc Murphy (C)
  • Sam Docherty (VC)
  • Charlie Curnow

The Issues:

  • Does captain Marc Murphy want out? The Blues lack of ladder progress has Murphy considering his options - stay and see out the Carlton rebuild, or leave and chase more immediate success.
  • The navy Blues have been uncompetitive at times in 2018. This is immediately due to the leadership hole left by Gibbs, and injuries to Docherty and Marc Murphy, but in a large sense, the Blues have no 23 - 27yo leaders that were ready to step up once these guys went down or out. 
  • They've traded in too many flops from GWS. I'm all for trading, but the Silvagni led Blues recruiting team have brought in too many failed players from GWS. Silvagni drafted these players once at GWS, then traded for them at Carlton. The list below shows that they have at present a 50% fail rate, and a 20% success rate when using this tactic. Once they're careers have all panned out, I expect this to be 70% fail rate, and a 30% success rate. Dismal. 
    • Mark Whiley - FAIL
    • Kristian Jaksch - FAIL
    • Liam Sumner - FAIL
    • Rhys Palmer - FAIL
    • Andrew Phillips - Non-essential
    • Jed Lamb - FAIL
    • Lachie Plowman - Success
    • Caleb Marchbank - Success
    • Jarrod Pickett - Non-essential
    • Matthew Kennedy - To early to tell

Whats Missing:

  • Midfield support for young star Cripps
  • 24 - 28yo talent. This is a huge gap that they need to address through trade/FA

Current Draft Picks:

  • 1st Round: 1
  • 2nd Round: 23 (from Dogs), 26 (from Crows)
  • 3rd Round: none
  • 4th Round: 66 (from Geelong)

Upcoming Contracts:

  • Aaron Mullett (de-list with Docherty back next year)
  • Alex Silvagni (de-list and invest in Weitering)
  • Cam O'Shea (de-list with Docherty back next year)
  • Cam Polson (de-list)
  • Dale Thomas (re-contract for 2 years, need senior players and leadership. Daisy's hardness is inspiring)
  • Darcy Lang (re-contract for 2 years, give him time but he needs to show something)
  • Jarrod Pickett (re-contract for 1  year, needs to start playing very well, very soon.)
  • Jed Lamb (de-list)
  • Jesse Glass-McCasker (de-list)
  • Kade Simpson (re-contract for as long as he wants)
  • Kym LeBois (de-list)
  • Marc Murphy (re-contract if he wants to stay and is committed to the journey)
  • Matt Shaw (de-list)
  • Matt Kennedy (re-contract for 2 years)
  • Matt Wright (re-contract for 2 years)
  • Matt Lobbe (de-list)
  • Nick Graham (de-list)
  • Pat Kerr (re-contract for 2 years)
  • Sam Kerridge (re-contract for 1  year)
  • Sam Rowe (re-contract for 1  year)

What do they do?

Trade/FA: Carlton need to fix their midfield issues and should use FA to do so.

  • Andrew Gaff is the free agent dream, but has stated that playing for a flag contender will be front of mind. He's quick, skilful, and has added some more contested ball to his game this year, making him the biggest midfield fish in this years' FA crop.
  • If Gaff doesn't make his was to Carlton, they should make a big play at the group of Bulldogs that are FAs, including Dahlhaus, Wallis and Tom Liberatore. 
  • The Blues shouldn’t really be using picks to get senior players unless they are guns, at least in the best 10 on their list. A Mitch McGovern type, or a very high quality mid would be the only type of player they should target with trade.
  • Apparently North Melbourne have offered $5 million for 5 years of De Goey. If that's the going price, I'd say pass. If Carlton can somehow keep Pick 1, get De Goey, and keep his price below $4 million for 5 years then I say go for it.
  • AFL website said target Miles, Dom Tyson, and Mitch Wallis. The idea is midfield depth, the result is a seriously one-paced midfield. Wallis is a free agent, and is the best of the this working class group. Miles will be the cheapest, and is better than most on Carlton's list. 

Draft: Pick 1 and two middle 2nd round picks this year, and I have no idea what the Blues will do with them.

  • Option 1: Draft Jack Lukosius, the elite tall prospect, then pick midfielders.
  • Option 2: Draft Sam Walsh, the elite midfield leader, then pick midfielders (the Blues really need midfielders). 
  • Option 3: Trade down the order to a Pick between 4 - 8, getting some more draft picks in the door. Best case scenario here is Lynch leaves GCS, giving the Suns Picks 4 and 5. The Blues give Pick 1 and Adelaide's 2nd round pick (currently 26) (valued at 3950) for Picks 4, 5 (valued at 3912) and a sweetener (2019 3rd round pick). Walsh and Lukosius will both be gone, but three of Bailey Smith, Ben King, Max King, Izak Rankine, and Connor Rozee will be on the board, and all are top prospects. Smith and Rozee the best options for Carlton.
  • Rookie options: Take a few mature aged rookie prospects to thicken the 23 yo - 27 yo age bracket. Any two of Kade Answerth, Tom Atkins, and Haiden Scholaithe, who are all dominant 2nd tier players, would provide real competition for spots. You hope that one of those players can be as good as Michael Barlow. 

Sean Says:

  • The Blues need to have a good hard look at themselves at the end of this year. Anyone that's over 26 yo and isn't a part of your best 18 now or in two years, cut them. Time to move them on and turn over the list. There is still a lot of light at the end of the tunnel with the good core of young players.

John says:

  • You are what you eat. Keep getting recycled players, and you'll be a recycled team. Trade for rubbish and you'll be rubbish. Maybe the Visy association eventually got to the Blues, but they need to break from that, clear out low potential players and list cloggers and start driving minimum acceptable standards and high performance. Blues management should engage Andy Meikle or someone similar. 

Final Words:

  • Time to stop recycling players. The Blues need to set high standards, and that means not allowing more list cloggers onto the list. 

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