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Adelaide Crows 2018

Not all Radelaide in Adelaide

· List Analysis

Average Age

24 years 192 days (at Nov 30, 2017), making Adelaide the oldest in the AFL

Depth Chart:

  • 6 x Key forwards (193cm+)
  • 8 x General forwards
  • 13 x Midfielders
  • 3 x Rucks
  • 9 x General defenders
  • 5 x Key defenders (193cm+)

Key Players:

  • Tex Walker (C)
  • Daniel Talia
  • Rory Sloane (VC)
  • Matthew Crouch
  • Brad Crouch
  • Bryce Gibbs
  • Sam Jacobs

The Issues:

  • Does Mitch McGovern want out? He signed a 3y deal late last year (around the same time the Jake Lever saga was happening). Sam Maclure is reporting that McGovern was told by the Crows, "there is no more money", then they signed Gibbs to a lucrative deal, which has set this rumour in motion. 
  • Will Sloane go home to Victoria to finish his career? We think that he might be, the Saints are sure to be interested, and a 4y, $4m dollar deal [my speculation] to move him to Moorabbin wouldn't be out of the questions.
  • Rumoured salary cap squeeze - we don't get to see the final contracts so we can't be sure, but given the amount of experienced players the Crows have on their list, and the probable overpaying of Jenkins, the Crows will need to move out some medium sized contracts. 
  • The camp - An army style camp for an AFL club? What a bad idea! But the Crows are hell-bent on maintaining the Crowbots tag from the 2000s. 
  • Retention rates are so low (see players below), and there is potential to add to the losses this year:
    • C. Cameron (traded to Brisbane)
    • E. Curnow (de-listed)
    • Kerridge (traded to Carlton)
    • M. Wright (de-listed)
    • McKernan (then traded for L.Lowden to cover)
    • Dangerfield (traded to Geelong)
    • Lyons (traded to Gold Coast)
    • Wigg (traded to Gold Coast)
    • P.Davis (GWS out of contract acquisition) 
    • Gunston (traded to Hawks, stripped of Adelaide's best young player award after announcing his intention to leave)
    • Henderson (de-listed)
    • Lever (traded to Melbourne, barred from attending Adelaide's best B&F after announcing his intention to leave)
    • Vince (traded to Melbourne)
    • Tippett (preseason draft to Sydney after 2012 trade controversy)

What's Missing:

  • Midfield pace and depth
  • High quality developing ruckman (with Jacobs 30yo, this should be a priority)
  • Young high-end talent (Gallucci only <23yr mid, Milera and D.Fogarty the others with promise)

Current Draft Picks:

  • 1st Round: 8, 14 (from Melbourne)
  • 2nd Round: 19 (from Carlton)
  • 3rd Round: 37 (from Carlton)
  • 4th Round: 61 (from Melbourne)

Upcoming Contracts:

  • Andy Otten – URFA (re-sign – good flexible depth)
  • David MacKay - URFA (trade/de-list)
  • Rory Sloane – RFA (Our call - if the Crows finish bottom 7, they should pump him up and send him on a big contract to St.Kilda, get a first round compo pick and go to the draft with 4 inside the top 20)
  • Ben Davis (de-list)
  • Cameron Ellis-Yolmen (injury has held him back, might just be a depth player now – re-sign)
  • Curtly Hampton (de-list)
  • Harry Dear (de-list)
  • Kyle Cheney (A  journeyman who’s journey might have come to an end - de-list)
  • Matthew Signorello (de-list)
  • Paul Seedsman (stepped up to fill Brodie Smith's shoes – re-sign)
  • Sam Gibson (hasn’t panned out how they wanted, oldest player on the list might have to make way – de-list)
  • Jackson Edwards (R) (young and shows some promise – re-rookie)
  • Ben Jarman (R) (de-list)
  • Lachlan Murphy (R) (re-rookie)
  • Patrick Wilson (R) (upgrade to primary list if other clubs target him, otherwise re-rookie)
  • Paul Hunter (R) (de-list)

What do they do?

Trade/FA: The Crows should be trading out players with a bit of a salary cap squeeze and rumoured unrest.

  • If Sloane walks, the Crows will likely get an after first selection compo pick or an end of first round pick. This is speculation as the AFL don't share their eleven secret herbs and spices 'formula', but Sloane leaving will likely mean a large contract (which is a pro for the formula), but he is 29yo in Round 1 2019 and was taken with Pick 44, both which will work against them.
  • Mitch McGovern, if he forces a trade, would be worth a first round pick of 5 - 12. The Crows should trade McGovern to the West. I’d prefer a mid-first round pick this year than McGovern, helps the salary cap squeeze too. Option 1: McGovern and Pick 19 goes to Freo for Pick 7. Option 2: McGovern to West Coast for future 1st round pick and Lycett). Better still, trade out Jenkins and bring in a draft pick and ruckman, either Zac Smith (would require a 3 way trade) or a developing ruck. 
  • AFL website said target Miles, which doesn’t make sense because Adelaide are similar to Richmond. Adelaide already has a Miles type in CEY (and they aren’t the quickest midfield). Miles needs games at a lesser club like Carlton/Gold Coast. Tom Stewart doesn’t make sense either, they already have Laird in that role, and have Smith coming back, Doddee playing well, Seedsman having a career best year, and have resigned draftee McPherson who is a similar type.
  • Should be targeting a mini-rebuild to ease cap pressure, capitalise on their power status and allow players to move out for talented youngsters. They could move out Aitkins for a 2nd rounder to the right club (maybe Melbourne, bringing Garlett in + a future 3rd rounder).

Draft: The Crows will be the envy of many clubs this year with such a strong draft hand, 3 picks inside the top 22 (at least), and should they lose the players above they will likely get 3 more picks inside the top 25. With so much South Australian high end talent, what do they do?

  • Option 1: Maintain picks and look to draft a South Australian trio like Connor Rozee, Jackson Hately, and Tom Sparrow. The dream scenario would be for Izak Rankine to slip to 8 and Rozee to be available at 14.
  • Option 2: Trade up for Rankine! The SA cream of this exceptional draft crop. Heard recruiters saying they've never seen a more talented draft prospect. To get him, it would likely mean bundling up two first round picks to move inside the top 4. Clubs will need to overpay to move inside the top picks in this draft. The absolute elite talent runs to about 9, but two of those players are tied to academies. Trading 8 and 14 for Pick 4 - 6 seems more likely to me.
  • Option 3: Trade up for Lukosius!!! Chris Doerre (aka Knightmare) is calling this kid the best draft prospect in 10 years. I would only do a deal for Lukosius if was for Pick 1, which comes with a nice marketing kickback. They would need to really overpay to get it, something in the realm of Crows 2018 and 2019 first round + Melb 2018 first round, and try to get a 2019 second round pick back. It’s a huge investment, but could pay off though.

Sean Says:

At the end of the draft & trade period, Adelaide would be rapt if they could:

  • Keep Lynch (DONE) & McGovern 
John says:
  • Go bold and shoot to have Pick 1 and 5 - 7 in this coming draft, that might mean moving on all current picks and maybe a future 2nd rounder. Land Lukosius with Pick 1, then bring in Izak Rankine to add genuine x-factor to the midfield / forward half.

Final Words:

Players in strong sides are consistently over-valued in the trade market. The Crows should capitalise on this while they have a strong hand at the draft and invest in a mini re-build.

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