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Lystics Power Board - July 2021

Aggregated draft board with Lystics prospect ratings

· Power Board,Draft

Welcome to the Lystics Power Board. This is the first edition of our publically released draft rankings. We usually save our rankings for podcasts and Twitter musing, but we have decided to start sharing them more actively with AFL fans.

The Lystics Power Board operates differently to most draft rankings. How you ask? 

1 - We aggregate. Aggregating multiple independent sources of information is a known way to reduce noise and improve the accuracy of complex judgements (see Noise by Daniel Kahneman). So Sean and I (John) review the draft prospects indepently, form our own individual rankings of the prospects, and then combine those with other well known draft raters. These draft raters could be anyone from afl.com.au's Cal Twomey, to Lystics mock draft podcast collaborators and friends at AFL Draft Central. At the end of each post, we will link to the other draft raters that we have included in our aggregation, as they are great sources for further reading on draft prospects.

2 - We aggregate again! This time, it's a time-independent aggregation. We've had over 20 years of rich data on AFL draft prospects, so we don't need to only consult the current year's data to compare prospects. We use all of this draft data to establish Draft Value Groups (DVG), within which all the draft selections have a relatively equal chance of success and output quality. We can then rank players against a typical DVGs, allowing you to estimate how a prospect compares to a typical draft pool. For example, is a candidate a typically top 3 (5 star), top 16 (4 star), late-first to mid-third round (3 star), 4th round onwards (2 star), or rookie (1 star) prospect? We've done this in the past, which led us to have only one 5 star prospect in 2017, seven in 2018, and 2 in 2019.

So now you understand the systematic approach we take, your done with dense reading and you just want to know our current July 1st 2021 Power Board Ratings. Well, here you are!

Lystics Power Board - 1st July 2021

Rank. Player Name | prospect rating

  1. Jason Horne | 5 stars
  2. Nick Daicos | 5 stars
  3. Josh Sinn | 4 stars
  4. Matthew Roberts | 4 stars
  5. Sam Darcy | 4 stars
  6. Tyler Sonsie | 4 stars
  7. Finn Callaghan | 4 stars
  8. Matt Johnson | 4 stars
  9. Campbell Chesser | 4 stars
  10. Josh Rachele | 4 stars
  11. Josh Gibcus | 4 stars
  12. Neil Erasmus | 4 stars
  13. Josh Fahey | 4 stars
  14. Jack Williams | 4 stars
  15. Ben Hobbs | 4 stars
  16. Jacob Van Rooyen | 4 stars
  17. Arlo Draper | 4 stars
  18. Ned Long | 3 stars
  19. Josh Goater | 3 stars
  20. Mac Andrew | 3 stars

Key

  • 5 stars - a typical Top 3 prospect
  • 4 stars - a typical Top 16 prospect
  • 3 stars - a typical late-First to mid-Third Round prospect
  • 2 stars - a typical Fourth to early-Rookie prospect
  • 1 star - a typical mid-Rookie draft to Cat-B Rookie prospect

Sources 

N.B. our sources will change during the year as more draft content becomes available, and more keen draft eyes release there rankings:

https://www.afl.com.au/draft

https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/members/knightmare.105307/recent-content

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/members/edps.106788/recent-content

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/members/davo-27.30533/recent-content

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